As we near the end of 2024, it’s a good time to take a closer look at the state of the Dane County real estate market. Understanding where we’ve been can provide solid context for where we are going heading into 2025. Interest Rates In our July edition, we shared that many experts were forecasting mortgage rates to stay around 6.5% for the remainder of the year. For a moment, it seemed like those predictions might be wrong—as we all got excited when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped nearly 1% between the time that issue reached your mailbox and mid-September. During that time rates briefly dipped below 6%, which felt like a welcome relief for many buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines. However, the excitement was short-lived. While we’ve seen a bit of a rollercoaster ride with rates recently, they’ve since settled back in around the 6.25% to 6.5% range with most local lenders. For those who missed the chance to lock in at 5.75%, it’s understandable if you’re feeling some regret—especially given how volatile the rate environment has been. But looking at the bigger picture, this is still a positive shift compared to the highs we experienced since 2022 when rates have periodically spiked above 7%. Looking ahead, 2025 is showing promise. Most forecasts suggest that rates will hover between 5.5% and 6%, which is a much more manageable range for many buyers. The days of 7%+ rates may be behind us—at least for the foreseeable future. Keep in mind, as mortgage rates decrease, borrowing becomes more affordable, which inevitably brings more buyers into the market. While this is great news for potential homeowners, increased competition among buyers can often lead to rising home prices and continued limited inventory.   Inventory The housing market crash of 2008 was a result of multiple factors, including a flood of distressed home sales and a significant surplus of homes available for sale. To put it into perspective, in August of 2008, there were just over 5,200 active properties for sale in Dane County. Fast forward to February 2022, and the picture couldn’t have ben more different. At that point, Dane County had just 259 available homes—a staggering 95% decrease in available inventory from the 2008 high point. Clearly, our current housing market is facing a vastly different challenge: not an oversupply, but a severe shortage of homes for sale. This scarcity, when coupled with the exceptionally low interest rates we saw just a few years ago, created an environment of extreme demand and limited supply, leaving many buyers struggling to find homes. Fortunately, there’s some good news on the horizon. Since March of this year, we’ve seen a steady increase in available inventory. As of now, the number of active listings hovers around 1,000 homes, which is a significant improvement from where we were just a few months ago. However, while this is a positive shift, we’re still not quite where we need to be. A more balanced market—one that continues to favor sellers but allows for a healthier dynamic—would ideally have around 1,500 active listings. As we look ahead, the goal is to maintain this upward trend in housing inventory, providing more opportunities for buyers while keeping home values strong. A market with more available homes not only benefits buyers but also helps sellers by creating a stable environment where prices remain competitive and sustainable. Inventory has begun to outpace sales in recent months. However, let’s remember that 2017-2019 were still markets high in competition and very favorable to home sellers. Values The increase in mortgage rates has made home buying more challenging, but if you’ve been following the Dane County real estate market, you’ve likely noticed something else: home values have continued to skyrocket since the pandemic. While it may feel surprising, the reality is that home values almost never go down. Yes, they can dip during times of economic crisis—like the 2008 crash—but over the long term, home values historically trend upward. To give some context, since 2000, Dane County has only experienced four years of depreciation, all during the recession of 2008. This drop was caused by a flood of distressed home sales, which created an oversupply of properties, dragging down the values of surrounding non-distressed homes. But even with that setback, home values have bounced back and grown steadily over time. In fact, from 2013 to 2023, we saw an average annual appreciation rate of 6.7%, with 2021 and 2022 experiencing over 10% growth each year. As of this writing in 2024, the median sales price for homes in Dane County has risen to $444,850—an 8.5% increase from 2023. While this growth is impressive, it’s also clear that appreciation needs to slow down to maintain affordability. If we were to repeat the rapid appreciation of 2021-2024 over the next four years, the median price could hit $630,000, a level unattainable for most households. Despite this, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where home values stop appreciating or reverse into a decline anytime soon. Yes, inventory is creeping up, but it's important to remember that leading into the 2008 crash, Dane County had five times as many homes available for sale. Today, the supply still falls far short of demand, keeping upward pressure on home prices. While we do expect appreciation to moderate, the underlying fundamentals of low inventory and strong buyer demand are likely to keep home values climbing steadily.

In the world of real estate, the ups and downs of home values are the subject of much speculation and analysis.  Yet, when it comes to Dane County's market, a few key factors make a compelling case for why we don't foresee a downturn in home values anytime soon. Here's a look into the dynamics at play, bolstering the strength and resilience of our local real estate market. 1. Supply and Demand At the heart of any economic discussion lies the fundamental principle of supply and demand. In Dane County, the real estate narrative is starkly defined by this dynamic. With fewer than 700 active homes on the market at any given time over the past few years, inventory levels are significantly lower than in previous years. To put this into perspective, 2019 saw double the inventory, while 2014 boasted four times as many listings. Both these periods were seller's markets with over 4% appreciation. In other words, we have a long ways to go in solving our low inventory problem before we can expect home values to decline.  2. Demographics Dane County isn't just growing; it's flourishing. A crucial factor this growth is the demographic makeup of the region. Notably, Madison ranks fifth in the nation for the highest concentration of Millennial residents per capita. This demographic, in their prime home-buying years, is a significant force driving demand in an already tight market. The vibrant, youthful energy of the city, coupled with its economic opportunities, continues to attract a steady influx of potential homeowners, keeping the market buoyant. 3. Lack of Distressed Properties Reflecting on the turbulence of the last housing crash, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) played a pivotal role in plummeting home values. However, today's landscape presents a starkly different picture. With only about 1 in 200 homes classified as distressed, the specter of foreclosures exerting downward pressure on the market is virtually non-existent. This dramatic decrease from the 2012 figure, where nearly 1 in 5 homes were distressed, highlights a robust and healthy real estate environment, further solidifying the foundation for sustained home value appreciation. The Takeaway With these three reasons at the forefront—tight supply and demand dynamics, a demographic bulge in prime home-buying age, and the negligible impact of distressed properties—it's clear why we're optimistic about the continued rise in home values in Dane County. For people in the market to buy a home, waiting is not the game to play. This strategy could cost thousands of dollars in higher sales price and lost equity.  Have insights or questions about the current state of the Dane County real estate market? We'd love to hear from you, leave us a comment or send us a message at contact@theminterteam.com. 

Are you dreaming of owning a home but have been waiting for the "perfect time" when prices drop? It's a common belief that when home prices surge, a correction is bound to happen. However, in today's real estate market, waiting might not be the wisest financial move. Let's delve into the insights from a recent YouTube video that sheds light on why delaying your home purchase could cost you money in the long run. Understanding the Supply-Demand Dynamics The video kicks off by addressing the surge in home prices in the Dane County area over the last few years. While the natural response is to anticipate a subsequent fall, a closer examination of the market reveals that the supply-demand dynamics play a crucial role. With a shortage of available properties, waiting for prices to drop might lead to missed opportunities for homeownership. Population Growth as a Driving Factor Dane County has experienced consistent population growth since 2000, making it a destination for many individuals and families. This growth naturally translates to an increased demand for housing units. If you're waiting for prices to decrease, you might find that the market's growth trajectory doesn't align with your expectations. Debunking Historical Price Trends The video delves into historical data to debunk the myth that prices always drop after surges. While there were periods of price decline, these were often linked to distressed property sales, such as foreclosures and short sales. Properties not affected by distress held their value remarkably well, pointing to the resilience of the real estate market. The Power of Equity Building One of the most compelling arguments against waiting is the concept of equity building. Even if prices remain steady, owning a property allows you to build equity over time. Instead of paying rent to a landlord, your mortgage payments contribute to your long-term wealth. Waiting means missing out on this opportunity for financial growth. The Financial Impact of Waiting The video underscores the financial implications of waiting. In a market characterized by population growth and a shortage of properties, delaying your purchase could lead to missed equity-building chances. Homeownership isn't just about a place to live; it's an investment in your future. Taking Action for a Brighter Financial Future The key takeaway from the video is clear: waiting for prices to drop might not align with market realities. By delaying homeownership, you're foregoing the chance to build equity and secure your financial future. Don't let misconceptions about market corrections hold you back from making a sound investment decision. In conclusion, the YouTube video offers valuable insights into the real estate market and its relationship with the financial well-being of potential homebuyers. If you're contemplating homeownership and aiming to make informed choices, this video is a must-watch. Remember, owning a home isn't just a shelter—it's a strategic step toward building your wealth. For personalized advice or answers to your questions about the real estate market, don't hesitate to reach out to the experts behind the video. Their mission is to help you make wise financial decisions that align with your goals. So, if you've been waiting on the sidelines, it might be time to reevaluate your strategy and take steps toward securing your place in the world of homeownership.

This week in real estate... 1. Madison, Wisconsin is making waves as one of the least stressed cities in the country. According to a recent study mentioned in the NBC15 article, "Madison Ranks Among the Least Stressed Cities in the Country," our city earned an impressive ranking of 171 out of 182 of the largest cities in terms of stress levels. This recognition comes as no surprise, considering Madison's excellent quality of life, vibrant community, and numerous opportunities for both work and recreation. With its welcoming atmosphere, beautiful surroundings, and strong job market, Madison has become a destination city for many individuals and families. However, this popularity brings its own set of challenges, namely a low housing inventory and high demand. The increasing number of people moving to Madison has put a strain on the availability of homes, making it difficult for the market to keep up with the demand. Despite this challenge, Madison continues to be a highly desirable place to live, offering a great environment for residents to thrive. 2. Is this the most expensive time ever to own a house? Not quite! A fascinating article on Realtor.com titled "Housing has been more expensive in the past" reveals some eye-opening insights. In May of this year, the typical homebuyer spent around 33% of their annual budget on housing costs, a significantly lower percentage compared to 1981 when the number reached a staggering 51% of monthly income. This historical perspective sheds light on the fact that while housing costs have risen over the years, the current situation is not as unaffordable as what older generations may have faced. It's important to note that interest rates played a significant role in housing affordability during the early '80s. The high interest rates at the time resulted in a larger portion of income being allocated to housing costs. Today, with comparatively lower interest rates, owning a home remains a realistic goal for many, despite the prevailing challenges of the real estate market. 3. The age-old debate of renting versus owning takes center stage in our final topic. In the CNN article titled "Rent or own? Who's Winning?" we gain valuable insights into the impact of inflation on renters and homeowners. While the cost of rental payments versus mortgage payments is often considered, it's essential to look at the bigger picture and understand who faces the more significant challenges in an inflationary environment. The article highlights that, currently, renters are experiencing more difficulties due to inflation than homeowners. Over the past few years, renters have struggled with rising inflation rates, making it increasingly challenging to keep up with the cost of living. This information can help individuals make informed decisions about their housing choices, taking into account long-term financial stability and potential inflationary pressures. If you're interested in learning more about any of these topics, we highly recommend reading the articles mentioned: Madison Low Stress: NBC15 Article Housing has been more expensive in the past: Realtor.com Article Rent or own? Who's Winning?: CNN Article For further assistance or to discuss your specific real estate situation, feel free to reach out to the Minter Team at any time. We're passionate about helping you make informed decisions and achieve your real estate goals. Subscribe to our blog and stay tuned for more valuable updates on the Madison area real estate market.   ______________________________________________________ 🔻ABOUT US🔻 Selling your home can be an overwhelming and scary experience. Our team is here to help streamline your journey by implementing a proven process that we've utilized with hundreds of home sellers in helping them find success in their market. For more details on how we've helped clients outperform the market for over 10 years, check out our Home Sellers Page: https://theminterteam.com/sellmyhome ______________________________________________________ 🔻CONTACT INFO🔻 Jeff Minter The Minter Team Realty Executives Cooper Spransy 5940 Seminole Centre Ct #310 Fitchburg, WI 53711 📞608-219-1232 📧jeff@theminterteam.com 🌐 https://www.theminterteam.com 👍 https://www.facebook.com/TheMinterTeam 📸 https://www.instagram.com/theminterteam 📽️ https://www.tiktok.com/@minterteam  

If you're considering a move or are interested in the Oregon, Wisconsin housing market, it's important to stay informed about the factors that have shaped its current state. In this blog post, we'll delve into the recent trends and challenges affecting the market, particularly focusing on the impact of interest rates and supply-demand dynamics. By understanding these key factors, you can make more informed decisions about buying or selling a home in Oregon.  Interest Rates: A Game Changer for Qualification and Affordability One of the crucial aspects that have significantly influenced the Oregon housing market is interest rates. Over the past few years, we've witnessed fluctuations in rates, which have had a profound effect on both qualification and affordability for potential homebuyers. Qualification Impact: A one percent change in interest rates translates to approximately a ten percent change in purchase power. This means that as interest rates increased, many individuals found themselves unable to qualify for the homes they desired. For example, if someone was initially qualified for a $350,000 loan at 3%, a rate increase to 4% would reduce their qualification amount to roughly $315,000. As rates climbed even higher, such as to 7%, individuals were priced out of the market, severely limiting their options. Affordability Challenge: The rise in interest rates has also affected affordability. A buyer aiming to purchase a $400,000 home with 10% down payment when rates were at three percent would have had a monthly payment of around $1,500 (excluding taxes and PMI). However, when rates reached seven percent, that same buyer would face a monthly payment of $2,395, a difference of nearly $900. This disparity in monthly payments made it increasingly difficult for many individuals to afford the homes they desired, exacerbating the challenges posed by rising home prices. Supply and Demand: A Tight Market In addition to interest rates, supply and demand dynamics have played a significant role in shaping the Oregon housing market. Limited Supply: Oregon has experienced a shortage of housing units relative to the growing population. With Dane County continuing to attract residents, the supply of homes has struggled to keep pace with demand. The number of available houses has fallen in recent years, reaching levels that were two to three times lower compared to just five years ago. This scarcity in supply has contributed to increased competition among buyers. Escalating Prices: Rising demand and limited supply have led to skyrocketing home prices in Oregon. As recently as 2020, only 20% of the houses coming on the Oregon market were priced above $500,000. However, this percentage has surged to 46% in the current year, indicating a significant shift towards higher-priced properties. The combination of rising prices and increased interest rates has further constrained affordability for many potential homebuyers. What Lies Ahead: Predictions and Future Outlook Looking ahead Potential Interest Rate Decline: Mortgage brokers are predicting a potential decline in interest rates, which could spark increased activity in the housing market. If rates move back into lower ranges, it could attract more buyers and further intensify demand. However, don't cross your fingers waiting for 3% again. Experts don't believe we'll get that low anytime soon.  Continued Supply-Demand Challenge: Given the current shortage of housing units and the slow pace of construction, it is likely that the supply-demand imbalance will persist in the near future. The market may continue to be competitive, making it challenging for sellers.  For more information on your situation, contact our team at contact@theminterteam.com. You can also check out your home value here: https://hmbt.co/xzyGZY

Let's dig in to see what is happening in our local Oregon market with a few key points.   1. Buyer Demand : Overall showing activity remains DOWN in Oregon when compared to the average for this time of year. This is an indicator of buyer demand. However, I wouldn't read too much into this as it is somewhat reflective of current price points and the high volume of new construction homes in our market. What we do find interesting is that during spring break week showings skyrocketed to the highest number we've seen since May 2022. It will be interesting to see how this trend develops throughout April.   2. Available Homes (Inventory) : Good news, inventory is UP compared to the last two years and is the highest we've seen since October. That is healthy as we work to create more balance between buyers and sellers. Bad news, as of 4/7/2023 there are ZERO existing homes without accepted offers for under $500,000. This creates an affordability issue for many people. For perspective, at the end of March 2020 there were nearly 2.5 times as many homes on the market in Oregon.   3. Tips for Buyers: Prepare yourself ahead of time, not when the right house hits the market. Buyers who wait for a house to show up could easily be late to the party this year again. Without being fully preapproved and connected to an agent unprepared buyers will not be in a position to learn about "hidden" inventory, prepared for coming soon homes, write competitive offers, and ultimately win the house they are searching for. Be proactive, not reactive. More on this here: https://youtu.be/_ltLcVJpzdw   4. Tips for Sellers: It is shaping up to be another great year for sellers, especially in the under $500,000 market, but that doesn't mean you can do whatever you want. In fact some homes are sitting or not getting the traffic they should have because of poor preparation, marketing, or pricing. Make sure your home is effectively prepared to wow potential buyers online, price your home to get the most qualified eyes on your home, and work with an agent who will market your home to the highest number of potential buyers. Sellers that win in this market do it by increasing the demand and competition for their home not by trusting the market to get them the best possible offer without putting in the other work. More on this here: https://youtu.be/31KDk_5Whmw   As always, if you have any questions about your Oregon area home reach out to us at anytime. We love serving our Oregon, WI neighbors. See less

Recently there have been a lot of of opinions on the state of the market so let's boil it down real quick to see what is happening in our local housing market with a few key points.   1. Buyer Demand: Anecdotally buyer demand has not decided to take a dip this spring. After some struggles this fall with the peak of interest rates agents across many brokerages are reporting high activity with many competing offers. By most accounts it appears demand is here and should lead to another wild spring market.   2. Available Homes (Inventory): Good news, across Dane County inventory is UP compared to last year at this time. That is healthy as we work to create more balance between buyers and sellers. Bad news, as this is written (3/8) we have just over 400 condos and single family homes available in Dane County...in 2017 we had over 1000 and at that time were concerned about the lack of inventory. Even if we make progress with inventory this year, it appears to be another sellers market ahead of us.   3. Tips for Buyers: Prepare yourself ahead of time, not when the right house hits the market. Buyers who wait for a house to show up could easily be late to the party this year again. Without being fully preapproved and connected to an agent unprepared buyers will not be in a position to learn about "hidden" inventory, prepared for coming soon homes, write competitive offers, and ultimately win the house they are searching for. Be proactive, not reactive. More on this HERE.    4. Tips for Sellers: It is shaping up to be another great year for sellers, but that doesn't mean you can do whatever you want. Make sure your home is effectively prepared to wow potential buyers online, price your home to get the most qualified eyes on your home, and work with an agent who will market your home to the highest number of potential buyers. Sellers that win in this market do it by increasing the demand and competition for their home not by trusting the market to get them the best possible offer without putting in the other work. More on selling HERE. 

"How's the Market?"   That's probably the question we hear more than anything else. Recently there have been a lot of of opinions on the state of the market so let's boil it down real quick to see what is happening in our local Oregon market with a few key points.   1. Buyer Demand: After a healthy January showing activity is DOWN in Oregon when compared to the average for this time of year. This is an indicator of buyer demand. However, I wouldn't read too much into this as it is somewhat reflective of current price points and the high volume of new construction homes in our market.   2. Available Homes (Inventory): Good news, inventory is UP compared to the last two years. That is healthy as we work to create more balance between buyers and sellers. Bad news, there are only FIVE existing homes available on the market and 4 of them are over $550,000. This creates an affordability issue for many people. The remaining active homes are all new construction.   3. Tips for Buyers: Prepare yourself ahead of time, not when the right house hits the market. Buyers who wait for a house to show up could easily be late to the party this year again. Without being fully preapproved and connected to an agent unprepared buyers will not be in a position to learn about "hidden" inventory, prepared for coming soon homes, write competitive offers, and ultimately win the house they are searching for. Be proactive, not reactive. More on this HERE.     4. Tips for Sellers: It is shaping up to be another great year for sellers, but that doesn't mean you can do whatever you want. Make sure your home is effectively prepared to wow potential buyers online, price your home to get the most qualified eyes on your home, and work with an agent who will market your home to the highest number of potential buyers. Sellers that win in this market do it by increasing the demand and competition for their home not by trusting the market to get them the best possible offer without putting in the other work. More on this HERE.    As always, if you have any questions about your Oregon area home reach out to us at anytime. We love serving our Oregon, WI neighbors.

This idea that the world is going to crash and everybody's gonna end up upside down in their mortgage is a myth that has been perpetuated by the media and doomsday lovers who thrive on the drama and bad news. However, it is not true - it is not a bad time to buy a home, and in Madison Wisconsin, there is no need to wait. Here's why... Supply and demand is so out of balance that we have a long way to go before we can create any sort of situation where values go down. As of this writing we have just over 400 home available in Dane County. Compare that to just 5 years ago when we still had an inventory shortage but had more than 1000 home available. In our area we cannot build housing units fast enough to keep up with population growth. Until that changes we can expect to see a seller's market in our area.  With the equity that most home owners have built up over the last few years, they won't be underwater - even in a very significant crash. In Madison Wisconsin, we would have to see the worst market crash we have ever seen for people to owe more than what their home is worth, and the environment simply isn't in place for that to happen. 

July 2022 - Dane County Market Update Summer is in full swing, which means campfires and cookouts, vacations, festivals and swimming. But this year, summer also brings with it concerns about inflation, rising interest rates and that big, scary word "crash". Depending on where you place your focus and energy, it can be a really scary world out there, and let's face it, most media outlets are doing a really good job promoting that drama. When it comes to real estate, what's really happening? Are we really going to crash or is now really a bad time to be in the market? Let's take a closer look at what's driving our market in this month's Dane County Housing Market Update. Mortgage rates have been a big player in this year's market, and rightfully so. Many buyers have found themselves priced out of the market, not necessarily due to rising home prices, but due to the significant increase in rates that we've seen since January. At the beginning of this year, if you could qualify for a $1,500 per month principle and interest payment, that also means you could have bought yourself a $445,000 house. Today, that same $1,500 in principle and interest only gets you a $330,000 home. That's over a hundred thousand dollars in purchase power that this theoretical home buyer lost. And a lot of people are in that boat. Quite frankly, it's a tough, tough pill to swallow. The good news is that rates have crept back from that 6% mark with many local lenders, and most experts expect that we've peaked for the year. This means that many home buyers can regroup and plan with a new normal in mind. It's very unlikely that we're going to see the 3% rate that really drove demand these last few years anytime soon. There's still hope for the budget conscious home buyer as some local lenders still have adjustable rate mortgages that you can find for under 4%. That is a great opportunity for someone looking to maximize their purchase power in today's market. The last thing I want to point out with rates is something you've probably heard before, but that's because it's true. Yeah, we had it really, really good for a while. And for people that purchased or refinanced into 3% or even lower, good for you for taking advantage of those market dynamics. But big picture with where rates are today - it is still cheaper to borrow money for your home purchase than every previous decade, with the exception of the last 10 years. It's all about perspective. With rates taking some buyers out of the market and inflation hitting our pocket books, plus the huge increase in prices over the last few years, does that mean we are heading towards a bursting bubble or a crash? Not exactly. Headlines will say a lot of things that can cause confusion, but no signs point to us actually heading towards a market crash. In Dane County we are certainly seeing some shifting, but that's not uncommon for this time of year, and it's somewhat seasonal in what we've started to expect for our summer months. This time of year, we're seeing the impact of so many home buyers starting their process right away at the beginning of the year with that mid-winter/early spring market. Others have tapped out because they're exhausted or they've been priced out with the interest rates. Some people have resigned leases, and there are many people that are simply just enjoying the beautiful weather and taking advantage this summer. Because June numbers aren't in yet, we're going off some anecdotal evidence and some of our experiences and conversations that I've been having with agents about what they're seeing and what they're feeling out there. But in just the last few weeks, it certainly feels like I've seen a higher number of homes hit the market, go through that first weekend and still be available on Monday or Tuesday without getting an accepted offer over the weekend. We actually had a home buyer with 5% down and a subject to sale - which means they had to sell their house in order to purchase a new one - get an accepted offer on a property. And that is something that we haven't seen a whole lot of, if at all, over the last two to three years. Keep in mind, that markets are driven by supply and demand dynamics. Through May, Dane county listings were up 15% while sales were down 8% over the same time last year. That's good. That's shifting us back towards balance. And it'll be interesting to see where this shift continues to go and how it moves. Big picture remains that we have way too far to go to get to any level where we can start being concerned about depreciation or lower home prices in our market before that actually happens. Even a potential nationwide recession doesn't mean that home prices are going to go down. Looking at this graph, you can actually see that home prices increased during four of the last six recessions. So what does that all mean for you? Is it a good time to be in the market or not? Well, look, if you want to buy a house, go buy a house. There's absolutely no sense in waiting to do so. If rates do come down, you can always refinance into the lower rate. And there's no data anywhere that shows that we're going to see home prices depreciating or going down anytime soon. Which means this; if you are in the market to buy a house, if you are planning to buy a house, if your goal is to buy a house, the longer you wait to do so, the more of a hit it's going to take on your pocketbook. Prices will continue to go up, which means your monthly payment will continue to go up, and it's going to cost you thousands of dollars over the years to wait. Sellers, you'll be fine for the near future. The days of 300 offers and $400,000 over asking price competition may be dwindling, but it's still reasonable to expect competition and a quick home sale if you do things the right way. Also, remember that real estate is always local. So depending on what price point you're in and where you live in Dane County, your experience may be slightly different than the market at large. For more tips, tricks and updates, make sure you follow us on social media. And as always, if you have any questions about your unique situation, give my team a call. We'd be happy to help. Let's connect soon.

July 2022 - Oregon, WI Market Update Hey there, Oregon. There is lots of chatter happening out there about the economy and housing market. Inflation, interest rates and home prices are going through the roof and the media loves using words like bubble, crash and recession. But where are we really headed? Is it a good time to stay out of the market? Let's take a closer look at what's affecting us in Oregon in this month's Oregon, Wisconsin housing market update. Through the first half of 2022, Oregon numbers are historically low. Our 81 single family home sales is the lowest number we've had in the last 10 years. Likewise, the number of new listings coming on the market is also among the lowest in the last decade and down 6% from last year. Now, this doesn't mean that houses aren't selling, because obviously sales are connected to how many options are available. As we have fewer and fewer houses hit the market, there's fewer and fewer opportunities for sales to take place. The name of the game in our local market has been lack of supply. Demand has remained consistent over years and years and years, but the supply is at the lowest number we've seen. But there is a shift happening - I don't have numbers to support this, but I have seen more price adjustments in the last month in Oregon than I've seen in any time in recent history. Showing activity is down with many houses only getting four, five or six showings on the first weekend. We're actually seeing people get offers accepted with subject to sale of their existing home. But is this bad news for us? Well, not quite. For starters, we need to understand that price reductions are not always directly tied to price depreciation. Out of the 12 houses in Oregon that have required a price reduction over the last month, only one of those was listed by a local agent. This speaks to the value of working with somebody who understands the nuances of the Oregon market. Oregon agents understand that our market fluctuates a little bit differently than the Madison market. So sellers and agents that price their property based on the Spring market or based on what's happening in Madison are not accounting for the fluctuations that we often see during the summer months in Oregon. In other words, market trends that are historically normal. Many people believe that the recession looming spells trouble for home values and they're staying out of the market because of this. Yet, historically you can see that home values actually increased in four of our last recessions. I would not be surprised to see the rate of appreciation slow down as we've gone up with our median sales price in town; 23% since 2020 - that's not sustainable. So if we go down to 5% appreciation or 3% appreciation, that's going to feel like a big shock to the system, but it's certainly not dangerous. So what does this all mean for buyers and sellers? Well look, if you want to buy a house, if you are prepared to buy a house, if you've outgrown your house, if you need to downsize from your house, buy a house. There is nothing you can be waiting for that is actually going to happen. Many people are waiting for rates to drop and that could happen, but it's certainly not a guarantee. If rates do drop in the future, you can always refinance into the lower rate. But the longer you wait, the more likely we're going to see prices continue to go up, which means that monthly payment for any house is going to keep getting more and more expensive over time. If you're ready to sell, you need to do so with today's market in mind. People who try to sell with the Spring in mind or what their coworker did with their West Madison house in mind, those are the people that are going to have trouble. Yes, it is still a great time to be a home seller, but you need to have realistic expectations on what's going to happen based on the market right now. If you prepare your house appropriately, and your agent markets it effectively and you price it wisely, you're going to do great. If you cut corners or miss one of those steps, you're going to run into some problems. For more tips, tricks and resources make sure you follow us on social media. As always, if you have questions about this or your unique situation, give our team a call. We love helping our Oregon neighbors.

National Housing Market Update - May 2022 Rising interest rates, inflation concerns and supply-demand issues have people talking crash, bubble and recession, but is it time to be concerned? Spoiler alert, the answer is no. So let's take a look at why this market might not be as scary as the media is telling you, in this month's national market update. I got into this business just as we were coming out of the last market crash, and I can tell you that over the last decade, we've seen a ton of changing market conditions, but nothing that exists today should have us concerned about the word "crash". In fact, some of the factors that are in play and have people talking about that right now have already occurred over the last 10 years and both buyers and sellers in those markets have done just fine. For starters, interest rates have been a huge topic of conversation this year and rightfully so. According to Freddie Mac, we started this year with interest rates on a 30-year fix at around 3.1%. We jumped up to 4.7% through March and during the course of April locally, we've certainly seen rates hit 5.25% or more. Right now, many experts are actually predicting that rates could jump as high as 6 or 6.5% over the course of the summer, depending on how the market reacts to inflation numbers. Considering a 1% rise in interest rates is roughly a 10% reduction in purchase power, this can be a huge factor for how our market is going to perform for the rest of the year. Let's look at a sample scenario. If we had a home buyer that was ready to buy a $400,000.00 home and they started their process in the winter when interest rates were about 3.25% give or take, that house with 20% down in January would have cost them about $1,390.00 a month in principle and interest. Yet if rates hit 6.25%, that same exact $400,000.00 house is going to cost them almost $1,970.00 a month at principal and interest. That is a roughly $600.00 price increase on their monthly payment only for interest. They're not getting any more house or any extra benefits of it. Now let's reverse that and take a look at it the other way. If somebody was pre-approved for a debt of $1,390.00 a month to get to that $400,000.00 purchase price, if rates get up to 6.25%, that $1,390.00 a month is only going to buy you $280,000.00. From January into the summer, that could cost this theoretical buyer $120,000.00 in purchase power. That's huge, and the impact that we're going to see is that there's going to be a number of home buyers that are simply going to get priced out of the market because rising interest rates are not allowing them to purchase the house that would make it either worth it for them to move or purchase in the first place. In other words, we can start to see buyer demand shrink as some buyers will simply be priced out of the market, and quite frankly, that's probably healthy for the current state of the market. But we can't expect the bottom to fall out. We've had 4+% interest rates, 5% interest rates over the last decade, and people still bought and sold houses. There was still good market dynamics for a lot of people, and I expect to see much of the same around here, even if rates continue to rise. Let's take a quick look back in time to see how rising rates have affected home prices. We can look at previous years where rates jumped quickly over 1% and we generally see a common thread. See, prices will still go up, but sales will drop as a result of buyers getting priced out of the market. We see this here in Dane County, it could actually be a good thing. Our market has been severely stressed with low supply and this could create some more balance. So if rates are going to take some home buyers out of the market and prices are going to continue to rise, is that setting up the stage for a bubble bursting or a crash? Not exactly. No data out there really supports the idea of a crash in this market. In fact, Altos Research says, "We keep watching for it, but there's absolutely no signs of market slowdown anywhere in the data. If anything we're seeing the market continue to heat up."  Inflation has also been a big topic this year, but when it comes to housing, home ownership can really be a hedge or safety net against the effects of inflation. In most decades, home price appreciation has outperformed inflation. So in other words, your home is more likely to appreciate faster than inflation, leading to increased wealth. When you own a home, your monthly mortgage payment typically stays stable and predictable, despite how the economy is performing. Rising rates, higher prices, inflation, is it a bad time to buy a home? Well this is kind of a loaded question. Generally speaking, I believe that you shouldn't buy a home just because the market says you should buy a home. You should buy a home because your lifestyle dictates it. Maybe you're settled in a location and you're not going to be moving out of the area or your family dynamics changed either in growth or with people moving out and it's time to downsize. Maybe you have too much space or not enough space. Maybe you need more space. Maybe you need a yard for your dog or to garden in. Whatever your lifestyle dictates, if that's the best move for you, then there's no point in waiting for a better market to come around. Rates are not expected to drop into the threes anytime soon. Prices are not going to decrease anytime soon. So, every month that you wait to buy a home is costing you more money out of your monthly budget. For a longer range visual, we can take a look at this graph, showing projected appreciation over the next five years on a home purchased today at $360,000.00. This buyer is expected to have almost $100,000.00 in equity from this investment by 2027. Meanwhile, if they're waiting in a rental for the market to shift, that equity would be non-existent. If you have any questions or comments about anything I shared in this post, leave us a comment; I'd love to hear from you and know what you're thinking. And as always, if you have any questions about your unique situation and how today's market dynamics could affect your goals, reach out to my team, I promise we will take great care of you along the way. Let's connect soon.

April 2022 Housing Market - Oregon, WI Hey there, Oregon. Jeff Minter here, team lead for the Minter Team at Realty Executives Cooper Spransy and fellow Oregonian, Oregonite; I should really know that. Anyway, let's get diving into the numbers and see what's going on in our local real estate market. I've been doing this in town for 10 years now. And quite frankly, this market has been about as wild as we have seen. And I could have said that last year or the year before, and maybe even the year before that. I know it sounds like a broken record, but we really, truly are at a unique spot in our market's history. To see what's going on, let's take a look at some of the numbers that we've hit so far this year. While numbers are still trickling in, here's where we're sitting today. Through March in Oregon, we've only seen 33 houses come on the market. That is the lowest number we've had in at least the last five years and it is a 30% decrease from last year's low of 47. This has been our biggest issue driving today's market trends - there's simply not a large enough supply of homes available. On the opposite side (demand), we've had 41 houses sell so far this year. That's a 24% increase and the highest total over the last five years.  So when we look at this year, we are at our lowest point with new houses coming on the market, and our highest point with houses going off the market over the last five years. As of today (when filming this), we currently only have eight houses available on the market without accepted offers - only two of those are under $400,000. So with this madness, how do you win in today's market? The reality is, buyers can still win with a long term vision in mind. Remember, mortgages stay steady and predictable, unlike the rental market. And that long term stability can be beneficial. I hear a lot of people concerned about entering the market as buyers, because of the competition and the concern that there's going to be a crash. The reality is, most home buyers today are not getting in with low down payment amounts or risky loans, which is very, very different than what happened prior to the last crash. Today, buyers are winning with more money down - higher down payments - which means more built-in equity. We will need to see a drop in home values unlike anything we have ever seen around here for most people to end up underwater, or owing more on their house than what it's worth, like we did in the last crash. Buyers competing need to be aggressive, fast and prepared. You need to make sure you have a realtor on board with you to get you moving right away, and your lending has to be totally locked up with a local reputable lender. Make sure you're working with both a realtor and a lender that other people want to work with. That name on the offer and that name on the preapproval can be the difference between you getting the house or losing out to another home buyer. It's a huge deal. And buyers should not be negotiating like their parents did 30 or 40 years ago. That's never going to fly. Instead, focus on the big picture. You've fallen in love with this house. Think about what it is that you're willing to do to make it happen. Remember, the asking price is just that, it's an ask, it is not the value of the home. So don't be afraid to stretch a little bit, and go over if that's what it's going to take to get you to where you want to be. Your alternative is simple, continue paying rent, and five years from now, end up with no more equity or built in value than you have today. I expect to see home prices continue to rise for the next few years. Our largest generation of home buyers are just entering the stage where they're going to be buying houses. Our demand's not going to change. So as we continue to see prices go up, waiting for next year, or the following year, or the following year, is just going to increase your monthly payment. Sellers, huge information for you right here. Listen, Oregon operates differently. We are not Madison. Yes, like the rest of Dane County, Oregon is in a seller's market. And yes, a properly priced home should get a lot of traffic and competitive offers. But your best bet as a home seller is to still hire somebody to help you sell your home that understands the local market and the little nuances that affect things around you. When I look at the agents who live in town and have the biggest impact on our local real estate market, versus the rest of the agents out there, I find some really interesting information. Oregon agents sell houses twice as fast, Oregon agents are more likely to get you competitive offers, and Oregon agents sell houses for twice as much over asking price as the rest of the agents combined. In other words, using somebody who's dialed into the Oregon market, who understands the differences in our neighborhoods and our local trends, and isn't trying to compare it to what's going on on the west side of Madison, because they know it's different, those agents are going to help you sell faster, with more competition and for more money. Our team would love to help you. We think we'd do a great job, but I want to acknowledge the fact that we have some great people in town that do great work, and we're all operating differently, which means no matter what you're looking for in a realtor, there's somebody local who understands the market, who's going to be able to do a bang up job for you and fit your goals, your needs, your personality, and everything else you're looking for. Shop local. Remember local agents are spending that money in Oregon all the time. We're supporting our local businesses, supporting our local nonprofits, supporting kids activities. So not only is a local agent going to help you sell faster and for more money, but a local agent is going to do better for the community, because of that.  The other thing sellers really need to know is: don't let the market do the work. The sellers that are really hitting the jackpot and taking advantage of today's market dynamics are making sure that they are putting in the work - their house looks fantastic and their realtor is marketing it the way it deserves to be marketed, to get the most eyes on the property. They're not just putting it on the MLS so that it trickles out to Zillow to be stumbled upon; they are putting it out there so people can find it beforehand, before it even hits the market, and getting thousands of views on your house.  Thanks for checking in! To stay on top of other local trends, make sure you follow us on Facebook. If you have questions about your journey, my team would love to help. I will make sure you're taken care of. Let's talk soon.  

  April 2022 - National Housing Market Update When I think back over the last decade, I think of a lot of people who were concerned about rising home prices, and whether or not they should purchase a house with prices going the direction that they were going. Let's face it, that's a legitimate concern, especially when a decade ago, the recession was fresh, and we were just coming out of it. The reality is if you bought your house two, three, four years ago, for a lot of people even one year ago, chances are you have built up a significant amount of equity and have done very, very well for yourself. In fact, I actually have a client who bought a house last year, 2021, realized that it wasn't the location that they wanted to be in and turned around and sold it this year for a really nice profit. My point being that your equity is probably a lot better than what you think it is. Let's take a look at some of the things influencing our national housing market. First let's talk about prices. Price is going up, and that's scaring everybody; that's creating that bubble or that crash idea. The reality is the data really doesn't support that idea. Let's look into this and see what's really going on. Here we have a graph from CoreLogic, and it shows the appreciation year over year by month, going back to January 2021, when we saw 10%. If we take a look at this graph, what we see is that appreciation is continuing to rise. I think one of the first things that we need to look at, if we're talking about the idea of a bubble or a crash, is we need to see it change or shift in that trend of what's happening with appreciation. If appreciation is continuing to rise, we're continuing to gain more and more equity. For things to crash or burst like it did the last time, we'd need to end up with people underwater. So until appreciation shifts, even though it may change market dynamics, I think some of those concerns are a little bit off the table.  Despite stats like this, realtor.com states that 77% of people still believe we're in a housing bubble. Let's look at three variants that are much different from the last time. 1. Lending.  Lending restrictions have become much tighter since 15 years ago when there were really low or no down payment loans, adjustable rate mortgages with huge swings in the interest rate, or people qualifying for loans that quite frankly should not have been qualifying for mortgages in the first place. With all those things happening,  people got into houses that they could not afford or could no longer afford because they shouldn't have been able to pay for them in the first place. And when prices changed and shifted, they were underwater because they didn't have enough built-in equity. Today, lending restrictions are tighter and buyers are more qualified. In fact, credit scores for the typical buyer is 42 points higher than it was in 2000-2010.  2. Equity. Buyers today have much more equity in their house. In fact, according to Forbes, the average home homeowner has $150,000 of equity in their house - the highest number ever. I think the bigger change with equity is that, in today's competitive market, it's really difficult to get in with a low down payment. Most of the home buyers that are winning in today's competition have 20% down or at least 10%. They're getting in with built-in equity, which means if the market were to shift, prices were to stagnate or prices were to even drop a little bit, we'd have to have people losing 10 to 20% in value in order to get underwater with their mortgage. And while that's happened in other parts of our country, that hasn't been something that's happened here in Madison. 3. Supply and demand. This is the most basic, simplistic piece of any economics and market discussion. Until we close the gap on the amount of available houses meeting the demand of houses that are needed, it's going to be really difficult to see a shift. What's happened over the last 15 years is, number one, building has not caught up to the pace of pre-2008 levels, which means we don't have that influx of new construction, spec homes and starter home styles. It exists in a sense, but not at the same level it was 15-20 years ago.  The price of materials and the price of land have played into that impact. And quite frankly, a lot of builders are just building higher end homes. Likewise, the sale of existing homes continues to remain at all time lows. Until we start getting new construction that's a little bit more affordable, or we start getting more existing homes on the market to increase that supply, we're going to have a shortage. And when you have a shortage, what do you have? You have rising prices. We have to close that gap before we start talking about a bubble bursting. With all the uncertainty out there, news stories and trolls and experts on the internet, it can be really hard to decipher what's actually happening.  That's one of the reasons why I absolutely love my team. For those of you that don't know who I am, I used to be a teacher and that heart of a teacher is something that's woven through our team and our philosophy, and it affects all of our conversations with our clients. If you're trying to decipher what's going on and what's really happening in the market and what's the right decision for you, and you want to hear it straight up with your best interest in mind, give my team a call. We would love to serve you along your journey. You can get in touch with us at theminterteam.com/contact or message us social. And for more real estate tips, tricks, market updates, and new listings, make sure you follow us on social media. Let's connect soon.  

Oregon, WI Housing Market Update - March 2022 Hey there, Oregon. Spring is here so what does that mean for our local market? I drive around town and I don't see any for sale signs out there. Prices are rising on everything from gas to food to definitely houses, and who knows where global events are going to be taking us. It can be so confusing with the constant changes in the market and world events to know what's right for you and your family. So let's take a look at the numbers and see where we've been and where we're going in this Oregon, Wisconsin market update. First of all, anytime we have inventory levels that are at six months or below, we are in a seller's market and anytime that number is above six months, we're sitting in a buyer's market. I promise you, right now we are definitely sitting in a seller's market. In fact, right now in Oregon, we're hovering around one month of inventory for all houses at all price points. Now, what that means is that if nobody lists their house in the next 30 days, Oregon will be out of houses within the month. It's not like buyers aren't out there shopping, right? I mean, we don't have very many houses for sale, but the buyers are definitely there. If we take a look at this graph of showing activity, we can see the average number of showings from 2018 through 2021, that's four years worth of data, and you'll see that for the most part, 2022 has been higher. It's exceeded that buyer activity, even though 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, were all hot sellers markets. If we're low on listings and high on buyer activity, what does that tell us about our market? Well, look, it's basic supply and demand, it's economics 101. We can continue to expect to see a very hot seller's market for the near future because we have extremely low supply and extremely high demand and there need to be a lot of changes that happen before that shifts to the point that it makes any difference for our buyer clients. However, despite competition and rising rates, I don't think that right now is the time for buyers to sit it out and wait for a better market. Again, our market has a long way to go before it balances out - people who buy today will start creating equity in their home and maintain that stability in their monthly payment whereas those that continue to rent will continue to be impacted by the stability of the market, changing rental rates, and they will not get into their first home down the road with any money in the bank. We heard from people last year who were waiting for the market to shift. They were convinced that it was going to happen despite the information that we were sharing. As an example, I want to share a very specific story about some of our clients. We had clients last year who bought a house for $440,000.  They decided that it wasn't the right place for them to be and they have since put their house on the market. Purchasing last year at $440 with around a 3% interest rate and we're going to assume 20% down, puts them at about $1485 a month for their monthly payment. Now this year they're going to sell their house for $505,000, plus rates have gone up to 3.875. This means the person buying their house is going to pay about $1900 a month for the same house. That's over $400 a month more for the exact same house, simply because the people buying it this year did not buy the house last year. That's a result of rising prices and rising interest rates. If prices had not increased and only the rates went up, the buyers today would still be paying extra $170 a month in monthly payment because of the increase in rates and price of the house would've had to decrease 10% over the last 12 months for today's interest rates to keep the monthly payment the same as what the people paid for it last year. I'm sharing this because during the last crash, we did not have a 10% decrease in home values. That is unlikely to happen for us. That's why we say people who buy today are still sitting in a good spot. Buyers competing today need to be aggressive and fast. It means you need to have a realtor in your corner and you need to have your pre-approval set and ready to go so that you can make a move right away and know exactly what you're capable of doing. Sellers that really want to maximize their opportunity in today's market are not cutting corners. They're taking all the right steps and doing things the right way instead of relying on the market to get the job done for them. That means staging, making small repairs, getting the house cleaned up, making their house shine and their realtor needs to use professional photography - that should be a non-negotiable in today's market. There's no reason your realtor should be taking pictures with their iPhone. You also should be using advanced marketing techniques to get your property in front of the most number of buyers possible. Yes, your house will sell in today's market. That's not the challenge. The challenge is maximizing your property, maximizing your opportunity so that you can make the most of this market and to do things the right way - without skipping steps. If your realtor advises you to take the easy way out, I would certainly look for a second opinion. Hey, thanks for checking in! To stay on top of the changing market or up to date with new listings, make sure you follow us on social media or subscribe on YouTube. As always, if you have any questions about your unique situation, give us a call, we are always happy to tell. We love serving our Oregon neighbors. Let's talk soon.

Dane County Housing Market - March 2022 Hey, Dane County, welcome to another spring market. If you paid attention in recent years, you know that this is the time of year, that the crazy stories start to emerge. Just how is the local market performing? Is now a good time to sell your house or should you wait to buy until the market shifts? With all the information that's flying around out there, it can be hard to make a decision and figure out what's best for you and your family. Let's take a look at the data and see exactly what's happening in the Dane County area to help you figure out what's right for you. In Dane County, at the time of this post, we only have 217 houses throughout the entire county that do not have an accepted offer, and currently houses that are getting accepted offers in 2022 and have also closed this same year in Dane County are selling on average for 5.5% over asking price. Now, I do feel obligated to make note that is an average. For everything pulling it up, there's somebody bringing them down, right? That's how averages work. If you're looking to list your house and an agent tells you that you don't need to stage, or don't need to worry about making sure that it looks the best, or we don't need to do advanced marketing techniques, run for the hills - those are the ones that are pulling the average down. If you really want to maximize your opportunity, you still want to make sure you're taking all the right steps. As far as market pacing is concerned, we have about one month of inventory across all price points in Dane County. Now for reference, six months is considered a balanced market. We are well below that balanced six month mark; we have a long way to go before that shifts back to balance between the sellers and the buyers. Is it a good time to sell? Yeah, it's a really good time to sell your house. If you take the right steps, you're going to maximize your opportunity. Is it a good time to buy a house? Opportunities exist where you look for them and people that are buying a house in 2023 are likely to be paying a higher price for those houses than they're paying right now, which equates to a monthly payment that's higher for the course of 30 years. You can  look at that initial pain of feeling like you're competing and doing too much, or the long range vision for where you want to be and what you want to accomplish. I do think that buyers that are buying today are still going to be sitting in good shape next year and years beyond. As always, if you have any questions about your unique situation and what's right for you, give us a call. We are always happy to help! And don't forget to follow us on Facebook or YouTube for more real estate tips and information on the latest listings. Let's talk soon.

National Housing Market Update - March 2022 I know that everywhere we look, prices are on the rise. From food to gas, we are paying more, and housing costs are not immune to rising prices. But there can be huge benefits to owning a home when other prices are rising.  Inflation gives homeowners a buffer when prices are on the rise. According to the NAR, as inflation goes up, home price appreciation rises faster. And Investopedia says, "Real estate is one of the time-honored inflation hedges. It is a tangible asset and those tend to hold their value when inflation reigns, unlike paper assets. More specifically, as prices rise, so do property values." In case you haven't heard, homes are certainly increasing in cost right now, but how does that affect you and your decisions? Well, Forbes put it simply when they said, "Homeowners are shielded from mounting rental prices because their cost is fixed. Regardless of what is happening in the market, they're locked in at that payment at today's cost." In other words, once your mortgage is set, it's usually consistent regardless of other economic impacts. Rising interest rates, inflation, those things do not tend to affect your mortgage payment on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, people paying rent are at the mercy of the market. Now, how is the market? We're in a bubble, right? Everything's going to burst because that's what happened in 2008. Well, let's take a look at foreclosures. According to RealtyTrac, just over 90,000 homes across the United States were put into foreclosure in 2021. This number is down 96% from the just over two million that went into foreclosure in 2009. As you can see, we have a very, very different market than the last housing bubble and crash. So what does this mean to you in simple terms? Number one, home ownership allows you to weather the storm of economic impact with a consistent monthly payment that's not going to fluctuate. And number two, we are not in the same market we were in 2006, '7, '8, '9 or '10. It is very, very different today. And while the market will correct itself at some point in time, it's not going to happen overnight - we have a long way to go. Expect to see continued buyer competition and continued rising prices for the near future. As always, if you have any questions regarding your unique situation, just reach out; we are always happy to help! Don't forget to follow us on social for more real estate tips and information about the newest listings. Let's talk soon.  

Oregon, WI: Market Update, February 2022   Hey there, Oregon. How is the market? Are we in a bubble? Are things going to crash? Is it ever going to be okay to buy a house? I get asked these questions all the time and I get it. When we look around town, there's not a lot of for sale signs out in yards. And despite nearly a decade of prosperity, the memories of the last crash still linger. It can be so confusing with different news stories and constant changes in the market to know what's best for you and your family. So let's take a look at where we've been and where we're going in this Oregon, Wisconsin housing market update. First of all, anytime we have inventory levels of six months or above we're in a buyer's market. And if that number's below six, we're sitting in a seller's market. Think of it like a gas tank. If the gas tank is full, there's lots of houses on the market and that makes it a buyer's market. But if that tank swims back to empty, we're sitting in a seller's market, because there's no choices available. Right now we are definitely sitting on empty. Not only are we under six months of inventory, but within some price points we are under a couple of weeks. In fact, inventory is so low in Oregon that at the end of January, we only had 12 homes available on the market, which is by far the lowest number we've seen since I started keeping track of numbers in 2013. And it's not like buyers aren't shopping. If we look at this graph, you'll see that when compared against the last four years of activity, 2022 home buyer activity is right there along with it. So if we're low on listings and high on buyer activity, what does that tell us about where we're going? The former middle school social studies teacher in me can't help but share that this is basic economics 101 - supply and demand. We have low supply, high demand, which means we can expect 2022 to once again be a hot seller's market most of the way through the year, if not well into 2023 and beyond. However, despite competition, low inventory, rising interest rates, it doesn't mean that buyers should hold off and wait for the bubble to burst or the market to crash. We have a long way to go before the market balances out much less crashes or over-corrects too far. Buyers that choose to wait for the market to shift are probably costing themselves thousands of dollars in purchase price and monthly payment by waiting, as houses will continue to get more expensive and interest rates will continue to rise over the next few years. In fact, I'll say that buyers that buy a house today are going to be sitting on a good chunk of equity in two to three years if they choose to buy again, and they can use that money to make a down payment on their next home. Whereas, people that continue to rent will not have the equity available to them in order to make that next down payment. For a quick example, let's look at this: If a current house is $350,000 with an interest rate of 3.5%, it is reasonable to assume that in a year or two, this house is going to be worth $400,000 with an interest rate of at least 4.25%. When we boil that down, we are looking at a $1414 monthly payment today on the house, versus a $1771 monthly payment in the future for the same exact house. Buyers competing in this market need to be aggressive and fast and be fully connected with their realtor and lender so they can make a move when it's time to do so. Buyers should not negotiate like their parents did 30 years ago. That's not going to fly in today's market. Buyers need to make strong, aggressive, enticing offers and keep the big picture in mind. Don't get caught up on little details that can easily be taken care of. Think about where you're going and where you want to be and what the long term goal is instead of the initial point of pain. And sellers hitting the jackpot are not cutting corners. They are effectively preparing their house for the market so it looks fantastic. In addition, they're working with a top-level realtor that is going to make sure that their house shines online and is seen by the highest number of home buyers possible. Oregon sellers specifically, you want to pay attention to this interesting statistic. Based on numbers I compiled from the South Central Wisconsin MLS, in 2021, Oregon based agents, that is agents that live in Oregon, are involved in the community, do a lot of work in the community, sold their listings on average for $7,900 over asking price. Meanwhile, all other agents averaged $2,600 under asking price for their listings. That is an additional $10,000 in value that a local agent is going to bring you. We have a bunch of fantastic realtors in Oregon, and while I certainly believe that our team would do a great job for you, you have plenty of people to choose from. To stay on top of the local market or get more tips, see more listings, make sure that you follow us on socials or subscribe on YouTube. If you have any questions about your situation, give us a call. We're always happy to help our Oregon, Wisconsin neighbors. Let's talk soon.

Dane County Housing Market Update - February 2022 What's happening in our Dane County real estate market? I get asked this question all the time. I also get asked if we're going to see a crash or if we're in a bubble and what people should do with their home? Is now a good time to sell? Should I be buying? It can be really confusing, with the constant changes in the market and stories that you hear, to know what's best for you and your family. That's why we are here to help walk you through the process and see exactly what's going on in our local market. Let's dive into the numbers. First of all, anytime you have less than six months of inventory it's called a seller's market. Think of it like a gas tank. If you have your gas tank halfway, that would be six months in a balanced market. If the tank is all the way full, you would have a buyer's market and that would be more than six months of inventory. If the tank is all the way empty, we're sitting in a seller's market, at zero months of inventory. Right now, we are on empty and definitely in a seller's market. Not only are we down to a few months of inventory, in some micro markets we are within weeks of running out of properties to sell. So is it a good time to sell here in Dane County? At the time of this video, we have 470 homes available in Dane County. Meanwhile, we are having an absorption rate of 561 homes per month. That means we are selling more homes per month than are currently available on the market. Overall in Dane County we have a 0.84-month supply of inventory. This is a very, very strong seller's market. In fact, if nobody else listed their house, Dane County would run out of homes for sale within 25 days. That is crazy. So yes, it's a great time to sell your home. We are consistently seeing great prices, excellent terms, bidding wars, competition - but sellers, don't be fooled by cheap promises and big ideas. The sellers that are really hitting the jackpot are not cutting corners. They are not taking the cheap way out. The sellers that are really doing a great job in this market are taking all the steps to make sure that their home looks fantastic as soon as it hits the market and they're working with a top level realtor who's going to digitally market their house, get it out there in front of the largest number of home buyers possible, looking as great as it possibly can. So if it's such a hot seller's market, should buyers wait for a crash or a bubble to burst? Well, in short, you could, but it's probably not the best financial decision. It all depends on your motivations. The market has a long way to go before that balance actually happens or before we dip into a buyer's market. Until the market shifts, I would expect that people that get into homes today will see a significant impact in the high level of equity that they will grow in their home between now and the time of that market shift. Meaning, if they want to become home buyers again, they will have much more available cash and equity in their home than people that sit around renting, waiting to buy a house when that market finally shifts. The key for buyers who want to win in today's market is to connect with a realtor and a lender who have the strategies, tools and relationships to get the job done in a competitive market. To stay on top of the changing market and get updates with new tips and new listings, make sure you follow us on socials and subscribe on YouTube. Let's talk soon.

February 2022 - National Housing Market Update Where is the market heading? Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market? And what does that even mean? Are we going to see a crash? Are we in a housing bubble? There are a lot of things to speculate in today's market. So let's dive in and see what the experts have to say in this national market update. The biggest factor impacting our market today is that we are really, really short on available listings. Realtor.com states that the national average of number of homes available from December 2020 to December 2021 is down 27% nationwide. Yet, even with how hard it's been to find available houses, it has not slowed down our home buyers. In fact, according to the ShowingTime monthly index, the number of buyer showings during November 2021 was higher than November 2020. And these numbers are absolutely crushing the number of showings that were happening before the world turned sideways on us. The Vice President of ShowingTime says, "Showings traditionally lag during the holiday season, but the data we're seeing tells us that buyer demand remains strong. The fact that every region showed a year-over-year increase indicates that buyers are undeterred and it speaks to their desire to keep searching for their next home." Buyers are out there and they are ready. With limited listings available, we are on pace to see a market very much like last year. For updated recommendations, tips, market news, and new listings. Make sure that you follow us on socials and subscribe to us on YouTube. Let's talk soon.